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Events and their chances

   Suppose tex2html_wrap_inline1129 is a set, called the probability, or the sample space.   We interpret tex2html_wrap_inline1131 as a mathematical model listing all relevant outcomes of an experiment.

Let tex2html_wrap_inline1133 be a tex2html_wrap_inline1135 -field of its subsets, called the events . Events tex2html_wrap_inline1137 model sentences about the outcomes of the experiment to which we want to assign probabilities. Under this interpretation, the union tex2html_wrap_inline1139 of events corresponds to the alternative, the intersection tex2html_wrap_inline1141 corresponds to the conjunction of sentences, and the complement A' corresponds to the negation of a sentence. For tex2html_wrap_inline1145 , tex2html_wrap_inline1147 denotes the set-theoretical difference.

For an event tex2html_wrap_inline1149 the probability tex2html_wrap_inline1151 is a number interpreted as the degree of certainty (in unique experiments), or asymptotic frequency of A (in repeated experiments). Probability tex2html_wrap_inline1155 is assigned to all events tex2html_wrap_inline1157 , but it must satisfy certain requirements (axioms). A set function tex2html_wrap_inline1159 is a probability measure   on tex2html_wrap_inline1161 , if it fulfills the following conditions:

  1. tex2html_wrap_inline1163
  2. tex2html_wrap_inline1165
  3. For disjointgif tex2html_wrap_inline1171 .
  4. If tex2html_wrap_inline1173 are such that tex2html_wrap_inline1175 and tex2html_wrap_inline1177 are  decreasing events, then

      equation322

Probability axioms do not determine the probabilities in a unique way. The axioms provide only minimal consistency requirements, which are satisfied by many different models.





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