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Binomial trials

   The statistical analysis of repeated experiments is based on the following.

  Theorem683

A binomial experiment , called also binomial trials, consists of the sequence of simpler identical experiments that have two possible outcomes each. The independent events tex2html_wrap_inline1591 represent successes in consecutive experiments. We assume that we have an infinite sequence of events tex2html_wrap_inline1593 that are independent and have the same probability tex2html_wrap_inline1595 . We denote by tex2html_wrap_inline1597 the failure in the j-th experiment, and put q=1-p.

Two important random variables are associated with the binomial experiment are the number X of successes in n trials, and the number T of trials until first success.

Example688

Example691

Example695

Random variables are often described solely in terms of cumulative distribution function F(x), or formulas for tex2html_wrap_inline1631 without reference to the underlying probability space tex2html_wrap_inline1633 . For instance, the number of minutes T that we spend waiting for a bird to come to the bird feeder at the back of my house is random, and I believe tex2html_wrap_inline1637 because tex2html_wrap_inline1639 .

It is intuitively obvious that on average we get np successes in n trials. It is perhaps less obviousgif that on average we need 1/p trials to get the first success.

Exercise701

Example703

 
2n tex2html_wrap_inline1661 Frequency in 1000 trials tex2html_wrap_inline1665
100 0.07959 0.08200 0.56278
300 0.04603 0.06100 0.56372
500 0.03566 0.03700 0.56391
700 0.03015 0.02200 0.56399
Table: Probabilities tex2html_wrap_inline1667 in 2n Binomial trials. 


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Next: Further notes about simulations Up: Independent events Previous: Random variables

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